Stocks Drop On November 1, 2022, As Hawks Prepare To Take Flight (2024)

AMDQCOMSPYRATESDOLLAR

STOCKS – AMD, QCOM

MACRO – SPY, RATES, DOLLAR

The S&P 500 finished lower by 30 bps, despite rising by more than 1% at the open. The market fell after the hotter-than-expected JOLTS data showed 10.7 million job openings versus a forecast for 9.7 million. The data also sent rates and the dollar higher. The Fed references the JOLTS data a lot, especially when it comes to the number of Job openings to the number of unemployed people.

That ratio rose back to 1.9, which is going in the undesired direction of the Fed. Pre-pandemic, that value was just 1.25%. Based on the Jolts to Unemployed ratio, there has been very little, if any progress.

Stocks Drop On November 1, 2022, As Hawks Prepare To Take Flight (1)

Meanwhile, according to the latest estimates from the Cleveland Fed, October is expected to see CPI rise 8.1% and core rise 6.5%. It won’t improve in November, with CPI rising by 8% and core RISING by 6.6%. So very little progress is being made on inflation.

Stocks Drop On November 1, 2022, As Hawks Prepare To Take Flight (2)

Despite very little progress on inflation and jobs, the equity market thinks the Fed will show its hand and tell the market it will slow the rate hikes so that stocks can rise and financial conditions can ease. Seems unlikely to me. The Fed Fund Futures, seem to think the terminal rate is going higher from here. Today, the futures now see the overnight rate over 5% through July of 2023. That is higher than where they were on October 20, the day before the WSJ article piece dropped.

Stocks Drop On November 1, 2022, As Hawks Prepare To Take Flight (3)

S&P 500 (SPY)

Stocks tried to break out today but failed, and I view that negatively. Additionally, the S&P 500 has retraced 61.8% of the drop starting September 12. So if the index stopped rising here, it would not surprise me. The index tried to break out of that bull flag today and failed, and the longer-term trends have been bearish this whole time. If rates are going to rise and the dollar is too strengthen, then it just isn’t good for stocks.

Stocks Drop On November 1, 2022, As Hawks Prepare To Take Flight (4)

AMD (AMD)

I’m not sure why AMD isn’t falling today. The company gave disappointing guidance. Gross margin guidance was a miss; revenue guidance missed by a lot at the mid-point of the range. A clear bear flag has formed in the chart, and should it fall below the uptrend; the stock probably has a long way to fall.

Stocks Drop On November 1, 2022, As Hawks Prepare To Take Flight (5)

Qualcomm (QCOM)

It has been a long time, but Qualcomm never did fill the gap at $92 from the summer of 2020. Maybe it will soon get that chance. The RSI in Qualcomm is very bearish, with that long steep downtrend. Not looking good, in my opinion, for where this one is heading.

Stocks Drop On November 1, 2022, As Hawks Prepare To Take Flight (6)

Originally Posted on 1st November– Stocks Drop On November 1, 2022, As Hawks Prepare To Take Flight

Related Tags

AMD dollar QCOM rates SPY

Disclosure: Mott Capital Management

Mott Capital Management is the portfolio manager for one portfolio offered by Interactive Advisors.Interactive Advisors clients do not invest directly with the Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management, and the Managers do not have discretionary trading authority over Interactive Advisors client accounts. The Portfolio Managers on the Interactive Advisors platform simply license their trade data to Interactive Advisors, which then allows its clients to have the same strategy and trading decisions mirrored in their accounts if the Portfolio is in line with their risk score. Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management implement their trading philosophy and strategy without knowing the identity of Interactive Advisors’ clients or taking into account these clients’ individualized circ*mstances.

Mott Capital Management has entered into a Portfolio Manager License Agreement with Interactive Advisors pursuant to which it provides trading data IA uses to offer a portfolio to its investment advisory clients. Mott Capital Management is not affiliated with any entities in the Interactive Brokers Group.

Interactive Advisors is an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC.

Pursuant to the Investment Management Agreement between Interactive Advisors and its clients, all brokerage transactions occur through Interactive Brokers LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Advisors. The use of an affiliate for brokerage services represents a potential conflict of interest as Interactive Brokers LLC is paid a commission on trades executed on behalf of Interactive Advisors. Interactive Brokers LLC does not consider this conflict material as it does not sell, solicit, recommend, trade against or otherwise attempt to induce Interactive Advisors to place any orders in any products. Interactive Advisors does not offer services through any other broker-dealer. All trading by Interactive Advisors is self-directed. Interactive Advisors clients acknowledge this potential conflict of interest and authorize Interactive Advisors to execute transactions through Interactive Brokers LLC when they open an Interactive Advisors account. Clients should consider the commissions and other expenses, execution, clearance, and settlement capabilities of Interactive Brokers LLC as a factor in their decision to invest in an Interactive Advisors Portfolio. Interactive Advisors believes it satisfies its best execution obligation by trading its clients’ trades through Interactive Brokers LLC. While there can be no assurance that it will in fact achieve best execution, Interactive Advisors does periodically monitor the execution quality of transactions to ensure that clients receive the best overall trade execution pursuant to regulatory requirements.

Disclosure: Interactive Brokers

Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Mott Capital Management and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Mott Capital Management and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circ*mstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

Stocks Drop On November 1, 2022, As Hawks Prepare To Take Flight (2024)

References

Top Articles
Denny's Ace Hardware Duluth Mn
The Best Warhammer 40K Mods for Stellaris – FandomSpot
Best Pizza Novato
Unitedhealthcare Hwp
Craigslist Free Stuff Appleton Wisconsin
Crazybowie_15 tit*
Erskine Plus Portal
You can put a price tag on the value of a personal finance education: $100,000
Xm Tennis Channel
Which Is A Popular Southern Hemisphere Destination Microsoft Rewards
Whitley County Ky Mugshots Busted
Magic Mike's Last Dance Showtimes Near Marcus Cedar Creek Cinema
Pizza Hut In Dinuba
Diamond Piers Menards
Ess.compass Associate Login
라이키 유출
Zack Fairhurst Snapchat
V-Pay: Sicherheit, Kosten und Alternativen - BankingGeek
Nevermore: What Doesn't Kill
Walgreens Alma School And Dynamite
Dwc Qme Database
Hampton University Ministers Conference Registration
Deshuesadero El Pulpo
FAQ's - KidCheck
Delta Township Bsa
Criglist Miami
Log in to your MyChart account
Craigslist Boerne Tx
031515 828
Pnc Bank Routing Number Cincinnati
Nicole Wallace Mother Of Pearl Necklace
The Mad Merchant Wow
Edict Of Force Poe
Craigslist Mount Pocono
Merge Dragons Totem Grid
Evil Dead Rise (2023) | Film, Trailer, Kritik
Publictributes
Busted Newspaper Campbell County KY Arrests
2023 Nickstory
Union Corners Obgyn
Tripadvisor Vancouver Restaurants
Bill Manser Net Worth
Lamont Mortuary Globe Az
Noh Buddy
Citymd West 146Th Urgent Care - Nyc Photos
Dagelijkse hooikoortsradar: deze pollen zitten nu in de lucht
Gt500 Forums
Aurora Southeast Recreation Center And Fieldhouse Reviews
San Diego Padres Box Scores
Blog Pch
Escape From Tarkov Supply Plans Therapist Quest Guide
Affidea ExpressCare - Affidea Ireland
Latest Posts
Article information

Author: Edmund Hettinger DC

Last Updated:

Views: 6275

Rating: 4.8 / 5 (78 voted)

Reviews: 93% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Edmund Hettinger DC

Birthday: 1994-08-17

Address: 2033 Gerhold Pine, Port Jocelyn, VA 12101-5654

Phone: +8524399971620

Job: Central Manufacturing Supervisor

Hobby: Jogging, Metalworking, Tai chi, Shopping, Puzzles, Rock climbing, Crocheting

Introduction: My name is Edmund Hettinger DC, I am a adventurous, colorful, gifted, determined, precious, open, colorful person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.